"The problem emerged in 2011 and is still unresolved. Delays in Comac's earlier program, the ARJ21 regional jet, are holding up FAA recognition of the certification competence of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). That casts doubt on the FAA's eventual acceptance of the CAAC's current work on C919 and therefore the Chinese type certificate. Without Western airworthiness endorsement, the C919 cannot be sold in main commercial aircraft markets outside of China" (Perrett, 2013)As far as domestic companies are concerned, I do not think that there will be cause for concern by Boeing or Airbus due to the fact that they are a known entity and they have stood the test of time. Major airlines or even regional airlines are not going to gamble and buy a cheaper made product out of China just to save a few dollars. The only way I see our companies beginning to purchase these products will be after enough of them have been sold and flying in China and Singapore for a while and they see no issues, but I doubt it. As far as the public's perception, I don't think the common person would be able to tell the difference between, just like I'm sure they can't tell the difference between aircraft now, except the size of the aircraft.
As far as COMAC goes, and the relationship that it has with the Chinese government is that the Chinese government owns COMAC, which is how they have enough money to even entertain the idea about making transport category aircraft. This relationship puts the airlines in a tight spot because the airlines are also owned by the government, this pressures the airlines to purchase the new aircraft regardless of the safety and quality of the aircraft. COMAC also has the ARJ21 aircraft, which is supposed to rival the Boeing 717 jet. This aircraft is also struggling to get FAA certification at this time. Due to the fact that they can not get an aircraft certified (ARJ21) or one built (C919) they continue to show up at the Singapore Aviaiton Expo trying to avoid people because they cant produce a finished product, "COMAC is staying away from the cameras and crowds in Singapore, and competitors are talking less about it." (Cendrowski, 2016)
Whether or not CORMAC becomes a viable option for transport category airliners, I do not think thi is going to affect whether or not any other companies try to compete and build airliners. The cost is way too high and it is not realy obtainable to think about trying to compete with the other major companies. The only reason that COMAC can hang with Airbus and Boeing is because they are state owned and can afford to waste the money.
No where that I can find has Boeing or Airbus commented in any way about the new aircraft that COMAC is making. Honestly if I were them I wouldn't either. This airplane is not going to be any sort of competition due to the fact that by the time the aircraft is released the A320 and the 737 are going to be so far ahead of it that there will be no cause for concern.
References:
Cendrowski, S. (2016). China’s Answer To Boeing Loses Shine. Retrieved October 29, 2016, from http://fortune.com/2016/02/16/china-comac-c919-delay-delivery/
Perrett, B. (n.d.). C919 May Be Largely Limited To Chinese Market. Retrieved October 29, 2016, from http://aviationweek.com/awin/c919-may-be-largely-limited-chinese-market
Ethan,
ReplyDeleteI agree with your assessment that after numerous delays, the late release of the C919 amounts to too little, too late. The only category that the C919 is currently competitive in is the cost. The engines aren't more efficient, the aircraft is not lighter, so when it finally does come out, I think that Airbus and Boeing will be so far ahead it won't be even considered. Also, if there is no demand by US air carriers to buy the aircraft, then they won't be lobbying the FAA to certify it, so that may delay things even more. Also, will potentially money saving corners that are cut result in an aircraft that has maintenance issues due to poor manufacturing techniques. It doesn't help to save money when you procure the aircraft if you're hemorrhaging money to keep it flying.
I slightly disagree with you. I do believe it is possible for the c919 to receive FAA certification but if it does happen it will take a long time. Maybe within 10 years or so but they have to acquire things like the proper preventative maintenance techniques the FAA requires. But the expenses alone can elongate the process of FAA acceptance and being a threat to majors like Boeing and Airbus.
ReplyDeleteEvan I do agree with you that the COMAC will not stand up to Boeing and Airbus. However in the future, once COMMAC gets FAA certification they may be a slight threat. The cost of a C919 is approximately $15-20 million cheaper than a A320 and 737. In the future once COMAC is shown to be equally as reliable as the 737 and A320 there may be more competition in the aviation world than we think. As of now I do agree with your standpoint. It will be interesting to see what happens to COMAC if they receive the FAA certification.
ReplyDeleteWith China starting to try and push aircraft into the market against Boeing and Airbus, it will still add competition. I don't feel they will make a big difference with larger airlines, but with cheaper airlines, we may see these flown there. Even though it won't be as high of quality, but it may be one of the only choices for smaller airlines. I feel at the moment the only way most of these airlines may start and survive from other countries, most will probably need government backing.
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese mentality of designing things cheaply hasn't worked out very well for them in regards of consumer safety. Every so often, there is some type of scandal that puts Chinese citizens at risk. One of the most prominent is the 2008 milk scandal. Even today, my family still receive request from family members living in Mainland China asking for things like baby formula because they don't trust the Chinese government to do what is best for the people. The scandal was a result of the manufacturer trying to reduce cost by adding melamine. To this day, the central government still has a hard time convincing their citizens that Chinese produced baby formula is safe. When the C919 starts to fly domestically in China and there is an accident(s) that was caused by cheap manufacturing, the the citizens of China will not want to fly in that aircraft, and mostly likely COMAC won't even exist.
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